Digital-Ecological Convergence and Spatial Heterogeneity in Chinese Manufacturing: A Coupled Coordination Analysis of Provincial Disparities and Markov Chain Convergence Dynamics
Main article
Abstract
The dual imperative of digital transformation and ecological sustainability presents both an opportunity and a tension for China's manufacturing sector, whose regional diversity encompasses technologically advanced coastal provinces alongside underdeveloped inland economies with divergent digital infrastructure and environmental governance capacities. This study investigates how digitalization and green resilience co-evolve across China's 30 provincial manufacturing units over the decade 2011–2020, employing a rigorous multi-method analytical framework integrating entropy-weighted TOPSIS composite indexing, natural breaks classification for spatial tier assignment, Moran's I spatial autocorrelation analysis, and Markov chain transition probability modeling. A Digital Innovation Index (DII) constructed from 6 sub-indicators and a Green Resilience Index (GRI) synthesized from 4 ecological dimensions are coupled through a Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model to quantify the degree of synchronized development between digital and ecological objectives at provincial level. Results reveal pronounced but narrowing spatial disparities: the CCD gap between leading eastern provinces (mean CCD 2020: 0.68) and lagging western provinces (mean CCD 2020: 0.46) has reduced from 0.28 in 2011 to 0.22 in 2020, suggesting slow but statistically significant convergence. Moran's I analysis confirms strengthening positive spatial autocorrelation (I = 0.318 in 2011, rising to 0.384 in 2020, p < 0.01), indicating that digital-ecological coordination levels cluster spatially and that regional spillover effects are increasingly shaping provincial trajectories. Markov chain analysis reveals high within-tier persistence (diagonal probabilities: 0.684–0.760) alongside meaningful upward mobility particularly between the mid-low and mid-high tiers, suggesting that policy interventions targeting tier-boundary provinces could catalyze coordinated regional development. Policy simulations project that spillover-leveraged development strategies could deliver CCD gains of 0.071–0.094 in western provinces by 2030, significantly exceeding baseline trajectory projections. This study contributes a spatially-explicit, multi-method framework for evaluating digital-ecological convergence that advances both the theoretical understanding of sustainable manufacturing transitions and the practical toolkit for evidence-based regional development policy.
