Data Analytics for Layer-2 Smart Contract Risk: Modeling Gas Cost, Dispute Frequency, and Validator Behavior in Optimistic Rollup Ecosystems
Main article
Abstract
Layer-2 optimistic rollups have become a critical infrastructure layer for smart contract ecosystems because they reduce execution costs by moving computation off chain while preserving on-chain dispute resolution. Yet the business and operational risks of this architecture are not limited to protocol correctness. Gas-cost volatility, dispute frequency, validator behavior, sequencer concentration, and incentive misalignment jointly determine whether a rollup-based application remains economically viable and trustworthy. This study develops a data analytics framework for assessing layer-2 smart contract risk in optimistic rollup ecosystems. Drawing on the security and privacy logic of Arbitron-style replicated computation, the paper models three observable risk dimensions: on-chain gas cost, dispute frequency, and validator behavior. A synthetic but protocol-calibrated dataset is constructed from benchmark gas values reported for Arbitrum0, vArbitrum, and privacy-preserving SC-RDoC, then extended into a scenario-based risk analysis for accept and challenge cases. The results show that challenge events dominate expected cost even when disputes are rare; that a protocol with slightly higher accept-case verification cost may reduce overall exposure when it improves copy-attack and no-action detection; and that validator inactivity is best treated as an operational risk signal rather than merely a cryptographic exception. The proposed framework contributes to business data analytics by translating formal protocol properties into measurable risk indicators, dashboards, and managerial decision rules for exchanges, DeFi platforms, auditors, and enterprise blockchain adopters.
